American Idol 10: Top 3 - Who's Going Home?

This is the first time in years - or even NEVER - where I actually don't care who wins this whole thing. Usually, I say that during the Finale, but for me to say it on a Top 3 night is just shocking, at least for me. I mean, they’ve all got strengths and weaknesses, but also possess the possibility of being an actual star. Of course, time will tell, but whatever.

That said, unlike the past 2 seasons, nobody actually had a killer Top 3 night. Kris Allen killed Heartless, and Lee DeWyze, I admit, pulled some amazing crap out of nowhere. Last night was actually pretty tame for the this season's Final 3, which makes this a little harder to predict than, say, Danny Gokey's ouster.

Scotty McCreery, to me, is the safest one but his performances plateaued already that I'm somewhat not interested in another three songs from him next week. But that's only my personal preference and no matter what I do, I think his trip to the Finale will be inevitable. The only thing that's working against him is that he performed first. History suggests that 7 out of 9 people (including Elliott Yamin, Danny Gokey and Vonzell Solomon) who performed first during a Top 3 performance night were eliminated - except for David Archuleta and Jordin Sparks. I wonder if he will also break this curse..

Lauren Alaina, on the other hand, is possibly the one who's in trouble this week. She had a good night, but it wasn't memorable enough. I also think that these two country teens are actually splitting their country voting block - it's like traditional country versus country pop - and I think it's safe to assume that Lauren is trailing behind because Scotty has never been in the Bottom 3. 

As for Haley Reinhart, it's too close to predict if she's going home or not. Coming into this week, I was pretty confident that she'll sail through to the Finale for the simple fact that people who hate country music will just vote for her by default. I also think that James Durbin's voting block will go to her as they are more on the same type of sound compared to the two country teens. Plus, she has this massive momentum and an incredible support from celebrities like Ellen DeGeneres and even Kelly Clarkson and Adam Lambert.

However, when I think about it, I think she's just as in trouble of going home as Lauren Alaina. Her performances, in general, were good, but it's a shame that her best performance was in Round 1. With 6 more performances after that, I'm afraid people might forget how stunning her Led Zeppelin version was. She also got muted praises from the judges, which may or may not make her fanbase complacent. I don't know.

Clearly, this week's elimination will be too close to call. It would be kind of refreshing to see an All-Female Finale (though unlikely), but I Do Not Want an All-Country Finale! At this point, a Scotty-Haley would be the best for the show. It's not as boring performance-wise, although the result would be as predictable as Taylor Hicks winning over Katharine McPhee. Waaah!!

I'm calling it a Scotty McCreery-Haley Reinhart Finale, with Lauren Alaina going home this week. TOUGH!

American Idol 10: Top 4 - Who's Going Home?

I’d say, Jennifer Lopez and Randy Jackson in the Bottom 2, with Mr. In It To Win It getting axed from the show. Stat! What do you think? Can’t we have that instead? We can’t? Sigh.

Yes, I’m still not done with the judges just yet. I’m still not over the fact that these “judges” were uber critical about Haley’s performances. Did Haley deserve the criticism? Yes. But when put against the total absence of it for the other contestants who also deserved it – more in some case – that’s when it gets annoying and infuriating.

Last week, when James did a craptastic version of a song because he couldn’t hold his emotions together, the judges gave him the pass and instead talked about how it was not just okay to sing like crap, but it was “emotionally perfect” despite not being sung well. But did Haley get an “emotionally perfect” pass for a song she seemed to feel, but didn’t screw up AS much as James did last week? No. I could go on with examples, but why bother.

And while Haley should’ve – at least, for the sake of winning – just don the grin and bear it instead in order to have a chance at staying, maybe Haley felt – and I think rightly so – she had no chance of staying anyway, so what’s the point? I like her spunk, and I absolutely have no problem with her speaking her mind. She was blatantly attacked TWICE by Randy Jackson in the span of five minutes to the point where Randy truly offended me. It’s one thing to criticize her, it’s another thing to attack her repeatedly like you were trying to make her snap. There! Rant over.

But to be perfectly honest, I’m not really sure who leaves this week. To me, Lauren Alaina is the most vulnerable but her trip to the Bottom 2 last week may work in her advantage. But then again, I’m not so sure how passionate her fans are, especially with pretty good comments from the judges. Maybe her fans didn’t vote as much? Oh, and she’s vote-splitting with Scotty McCreery for the country block. James Durbin, on the other hand, could also be in trouble. I mean, if enough people were riled up by the judges tonight, he’s the one to leave. Most people can see the blatant bias towards James and America may be slow sometimes, but they aren’t stupid.

Now, going into this week, I really thought Scotty McCreery is safest bet to sail through to the next round. But after last night, I’m actually having second thoughts. He was decent at best, but quite forgettable. Plus, the judges gave him great reviews. I wonder if his fans became complacent. See, Chris Daughtry. 

Which leaves me with Haley Reinhart. Yes, I feel like she’s in the same position that Allison Iraheta was back in Season 8. But unlike Allison, she has this huge surge of momentum in the past couple of weeks that could actually help her advance to the Final 3. However, I’m not counting on that so much. The odds are obviously against her. I’m also not sure if talking back to the judges was the best idea for her. But, what the heck.

If Haley goes tonight, at least she will go out as the contestant with the MOST growth from this season and the contestant with the MOST standing ovations – 3 out of the 5 standing ovations this season. Ever since her duet of Moanin’ with Casey Abrams, she has been on fire. She is the underdog that no one saw coming! I just hope America saw the fight and passion in Haley and voted for her. I don’t care who goes – James Durbin – as long as it isn’t Haley.

I’ll take a limb on this and say that James Durbin will be Daughtry’ed this week. I maybe wrong, but I don’t really care now!

American Idol 10: Top 5 - Who's Going Home?

It's as clear as the sky - depending on where you are, of course - that James Durbin and Jacob Lusk gave the weakest performance last night. But as this week's Bottom 2? I seriously want that to happen, but I'm doubtful.

James Durbin, to me, is possibly one of the most consistent contestants this season, but somehow I've never really bought into any of his "moments" on the show. Heck, I just realized recently that I've NEVER ranked him first on ANY of my reviews - despite getting some of the best critiques from the judges every single week. I don't know.

Maybe it's because all season long, James has had problems finding and staying on pitch - with a handful of exceptions, of course - and the judges never called him out on it. So, a trip - not necessarily an elimination - to the Bottom 2 would actually be beneficial for him to re-assess his performances. The same way Casey Abrams bounced back with Your Song after he almost got eliminated.

The only thing that's working against him this week is the fact that he performed first and his twinset weren't entirely great performances. So yeah, we'll see how things will pan out for him this week. Besides, Adam Lambert landed on the Bottom 2 this same exact week. Just saying.

Now, I wouldn't be surprised if Lauren Alaina or even Haley Reinhart be part of the Bottom group. Haley is obviously the Syesha Mercado of Season 10 and Lauren Alaina, though very good, wasn't exactly memorable last night.

As for Jacob Lusk? He just turned in 2 of the worst Idol performances of the entire season. Frankly, he should have gone home weeks ago. It seriously mystifies me who is voting for Jacob. I mean, at least Tim Urban and Andrew Garcia last season had obvious selling points. What does Jacob have? Maybe I’m just not ready to look myself in the mirror no? Haha.

I'd say Jacob Lusk should be eliminated this week. If Haley Reinhart gets voted off instead of him, I'll punch someone in the face! Really. But if for some reason Lauren Alaina goes home, I’m putting that squarely on the judges for their lack of criticism.

Top 5 Performances Review, HERE.
Top 5 Studio Versions, HERE.  

American Idol 10: Top 6 - Who's Going Home?

I'll just make this short and sweet. Bottom 3 for this week will be between Jacob Lusk, Haley Reinhart and Casey Abrams. Yes, I can see Lauren Alaina being part of that group just because she's been utterly safe these past few weeks.

Say what you want, but Jacob Lusk isn't going to avoid the Bottom group this week. I mean, he performed first - a sure death spot - and compared to the other contestants the reviews he got from the judges were relatively lukewarm. I'm afraid - well, not really - that he got lost in the shuffle after a couple of great performances. The only thing working for him though was the fact that his duet with James Durbin got the pimp spot. That may work for him.

Haley Reinhart, on the other hand, performed really well this week but it's pretty obvious that she doesn't have the fanbase to carry her long enough in the competition considering how solid James, Scotty and Lauren's fanbases are. Plus, Carly Smithson, Siobhan Magnus and Anoop Desai got eliminated the week and they were the people I was rooting for in their respective seasons. Same fate for Haley? I hope not.

As for Casey Abrams, he's been "eliminated" before so a trip back to the Bottom 3 - and even an elimination - is quite possible. Seriously.

But just like every week, I predict - BUT I HOPE I'M AWFULLY WRONG ABOUT THIS - that Haley Reinhart will be eliminated this week. Sad. I hope she pulls an Allison Iraheta though. Let's see.

American Idol 10: Top 7 - Who's Going Home?

I admit, ranking their performances last night wasn't so hard - as compared to previous weeks - because I knew who stood out from the remaining contestants. But I must say, predicting the Bottom 3 more so the one leaving this week is ridiculously hard.

Let me get right to it though and say that the Bottom 3 will be Jacob Lusk, Stefano Langone, and yes Haley Reinhart. I know. It pains me to write her name here because I thought she did an amazing rendition of Adele's Rolling In The Deep, but she just doesn't have a strong fanbase - Haley was part of the Bottom 3 thrice since the Finals started. That's 3 out of the 6 weeks of competition. And while she got positive reviews from the judges, it was mostly lukewarm praises compared to the superlatives most of the contestants got.

Jacob Lusk's performance was also decent last night, but he'll probably hit the Bottom 3 again for obvious reasons. That said, I think he got a good amount of pity votes from his tears last night. Stefano Langone, on the other hand, worked his charms to full extent and I bet it made all the tweens wet, but just like Haley, he flirted with elimination a couple of times already. 3 out of the 6 weeks. Oh, and he's a wildcard, which means people didn't vote for him to get into the Finals.

I wouldn't be surprised though if Casey Abrams lands in the Bottom 3 again. My theory was that he got voted off a week after he somewhat butchered Nirvana's rocking Smells Like Teen Spirit. And while he did better this time with a Maroon 5, I just think America wants the jazzy Casey and not the rock Casey? But what do I know.

Now, one BIG question this week though: Could Scotty McCreery be in serious danger this week? I mean, he went first, he didn't do so well - or at the very least forgettable, the judges gave him a few negative reviews, the majority of the other contestants had great performances, the other Bottom 3 threats haven't done badly enough to make them an OBVIOUS Bottom 3 candidates AND his primary competitor for country votes got the pimp spot, and happened to be one of the only two remaining girls left. Well, that should be really interesting no?

But as much as I like Jacob Lusk to go home, I feel like Stefano Langone will get the boot this week. Top 7 usually eliminates the person who overstayed their welcome - Sanjaya Malakar, Kristy Lee Cook and Tim Urban - so I think it's his time to go. I'm not saying he's in the same league because he's vocally far better than these three whatever, but as I've said, he's been in the Bottom 3 for a couple of weeks. So, people might see him as someone who overstayed already.

Ok. I said too much. Let's see.

American Idol 10: Top 8 - Who's Going Home?

After Pia Toscano's shocking elimination last week, I now consider this season incredibly unpredictable. I mean, anyone - except for Scotty McCreery - can go home! Bottom 3 could possibly be Lauren Alaina, Haley Reinhart and some random girl from the audience. Haha. Or maybe Jacob Lusk, because he's a minority and he's such a girl! I know, it's silly.

But seriously, I think the Bottom 3 this week will just play around within Lauren Alaina, Haley Reinhart, Paul McDonald, Casey Abrams, Jacob Lusk and Stefano Langone! Haha. Yes, practically everyone except the golden boy, Scotty McCreery. Sigh. I don't even know.

All I know now is that I personally don't like the idea of another girl going home this week, but it's only a matter of time, I guess. Lauren and Haley are, arguably, better than half of the guys, but just like Pia they are missing a crucial part: the male genitalia. Another sigh.

I'm just going out on a limb and say that Paul McDonald will be going home this week. That is all.

American Idol 10: Top 9 - Who's Going Home?

It's funny how American Idol went from having one of their worst seasons - if not the worst - last year and have a complete turn around this year with possibly one of their best, at least in my opinion. Seriously. Everyone is very evenly matched this year. I don't even know where to begin predicting the Bottom 3 - more so the one leaving this week.

All I know is that if it's another woman going home, I might punch someone in the soul. I mean, these remaining girls are absolutely incredible. Sure, they have obvious flaws that seem to make them unsuitable to win the whole thing, but the remaining guys are just as imperfect. Besides, flaws in spades didn't keep Lee DeWyze from winning last year.

But if I'm going with my guts, I think the Bottom 3 will just play around Jacob Lusk, Stefano Langone, Haley Reinhart and Lauren Alaina. I can throw Paul McDonald and Casey Abrams in the mix, but them leaving is very remote as of the moment. I mean, Paul had the pimp spot and I still think that Casey is still riding high from the judges' save.

Yes, I put Haley and Lauren's name just because I know that a girl will (unfortunately) be part of the lower group this week. They don't deserve it, but I have this funny feeling one will hit the Bottom 3. Personally, I don't want Pia Toscano to hit the seal just because that will scare her right back into the ballad box and I obviously don't want that.

Stefano Langone, on the other hand, I think should worry because while his performance had some great moments, he just doesn’t seem to be able to find any traction from it. I think just like Haley, he needed to DELIVER to stay in the competition, but decent won't cut it.

The only thing that could possibly save Stefano from elimination is the incredibly annoying comment of Jacob Lusk before his performance. Yes, that's Idol suicide right there. I admit, if only Jacob had not lectured the viewers watching, I think he would be safe as he had a more than decent performance. Sadly, that comment was stupid and I wonder if America caught it.

But as always, I have to make a prediction and I think Jacob Lusk will be eliminated tonight. I'm hoping it's him because I can't take another girl leaving this week. Thank you very much! Haha.

Top 9 Performances Review, HERE.
Top 9 Studio Versions, HERE. 

American Idol 10: Top 11 Redux - Who's Going Home?

I can’t remember the last time when I went into a Top 11 performance night wondering who might be eliminated. I mean, the first few weeks of the Finals were always about eliminating the people who should never have made the Finals in the first place. Not this year, it seems..

This is actually a little tricky than I expected, but I'm going with my guts and say that the two eliminated contestants will be between: Naima Adedapo, Stefano Langone, Thia Megia and Jacob Lusk. Let me break them down one by one. Ok?

Naima Adedapo, to me, wasn't the worst last night, but I think the odds are agianst her. She doesn't have a solid fanbase - she flirted with elimination a couple of weeks back - and the fact that she performed second last night didn't do her any favors as well. I also think that her reggae version of Elton John's I'm Still Standing is a tad polarizing for a lot of people to really appreciate. Yes, I like Naima and all her craziness, but at the end of the episode, her performance was just forgettable..

Same with Stefano Langone. His performance wasn't bad, but it was just too mediocre for people to even remember. I also noticed a little trend since the Judge's Save was introduced. The person part of the Bottom 2 - aside from the "saved" contestant - got eliminated the following week: Lil Rounds was in the Bottom 2 with Matt Giraud and Andrew Garcia was with Michael Lynche when he almost got eliminated. Which means that if this trend continues, Stefano could be one of the two eliminated contestants tonight.

As for Thia Megia, I'm not so sure about this. Arguably, she did really good last night, but for some strange reason, many people also hated her performance. I think her trip into the Bottom 3 last week may or may not help her. Jacob Lusk's inclusion in this list may seem random, but this is a possibility. I don't think he's gaining much fans from his previous performances and I don't think he has enough people to compete with the rest of the contestants. Let's see though.

But as always, I have to make a prediction and I think Naima Adedapo and Stefano Langone will be eliminated tonight. I'm hoping it's Stefano and Jacob, but I digress.


Top 11 Redux Performances Review, HERE.
Top 11 Redux Studio Versions, HERE.

American Idol 10: Top 11 - Who's Going Home?

Oh no! How am I supposed to predict this if everyone performed almost at the same level last night? I know. I know. There a couple of people who stood out, but no one was embarrassingly terrible that the best people actually got a substantial home run.

That said, I'm pretty sure two of the Bottom 3 will be composed of Haley Reinhart  - though she doesn't deserve it - and Thia Megia; the other one is harder to predict, but I'll get into that later. Let me focus first with the ladies. To be honest, Haley Reinhart's chances isn't looking really good right now. Personally, I think that she did enough to stay in the competition, but her performances were hardly memorable and her two consecutive trips at the Bottom 2 are good enough reasons to have her as the credible eliminated contestant this week. She seems to be falling through the cracks in most people’s support so another Bottom 3 appearance is highly probable - or even an elimination.

However, Thia Megia's tentative performances for the past couple of weeks might get her in trouble. I appreciate that she tried to mix it up this week, but performing second and having a relatively lukewarm reviews from the judges didn't do her any favors.

As for the other one, it has be between Stefano Langone or Naima Adedapo. I think Stefano Langone, at some extent, regressed last night even if his performance wasn't that bad. But, he went from having the best performance last week to the worst this week. Really. Where was my darkhorse? Haha. Naima Adedapo, on the other hand, just because her performance was polarizing and based on popularity she's clearly trailing behind the other competitors - but I doubt this.

This week's exit will be determined by the strength of each contestant’s fan base and nothing else. Unfortunately, I think it's Haley Reinhart. I mean, according to my post American Idol 10: Ranking the Top 13, she's the next one to go, but I'd rather see Thia Megia go as that would actually make a really good, diverse Top 10 line-up. Oh well.


Top 11 Performances Review, HERE.
Top 11 Studio Versions, HERE.

American Idol 10: Top 12 - Who's Going Home?

Ok. So let me cut to the chase and predict this week's Bottom 3: Naima Adedapo, Haley Reinhart and Karen Rodriguez.

However, I honestly think that Jacob Lusk and Paul McDonald deserve to be there just as much, if not more than Haley Reinhart. Seriously. Both of them were absolutely atrocious. Unfortunately, Jacob Lusk had the pimp spot (last performer) so the chances of him getting eliminated is almost zero. Paul McDonald, on the other hand, has a huge fanbase. So, I doubt that he'll land in the Bottom 3 just yet.

Now, Thia Megia can also hit the Bottom 3 this week, especially with a lukewarm reviews from the judges. I don't think she deserves it, but performing third isn't exactly a good position to be in. Good thing, she has the Filipino voting block, which proves to be a force regardless of the performances - ask Jasmine Trias and Ramiele Malubay.

As for who will land 12th this season, it's pretty tough as this week isn't as predictable compared to Ashthon Jones' elimination last week. That said, I'm going to predict that Haley Reinhart will be going home..

I hope I'm terribly wrong because she's growing on me, but Karen Rodriguez seems to have a huge following - from I don't know where. If it's not Haley, it'll be Naima Adedapo but I don't want the weirdness to be eliminated this soon!


Top 12 Performances Review, HERE.
Top 12 Studio Versions, HERE. 

American Idol 10: Top 13 - Who's Going Home?

Coming into the Top 13 performances, I have to say that I was really liking this group just because there's diversity in all ways - style, voices, ethnicity and so on. Plus, the fact that most - if not all - are actually good singers. Yet somehow, there were 12 uninteresting songs - save for Naima Adedapo's outrageous song choice - with varying degrees of performances that were mostly underwhelming.

So, just when I thought it'll be a no-brainer as to who will be the first one to leave, I guess there's no clear cut Bottom 3 this week. I mean, if it's just on the performances alone, I honestly think that it should be between Ashthon Jones, Jacob Lusk and Paul McDonald. But of course, I'm highly doubtful of this Bottom 3 combo.

Jacob Lusk is possibly still riding high on the sheer strength of last week's performance and Hollywood week. Plus, the fact that the judges didn't call him out on his ridiculously off key singing, I think America didn't notice that as well. Paul McDonald, on the other hand, has a huge following so I don't think he'll hit the Bottom 3 anytime soon - regardless of his performance. Besides, he is VoteForTheWorst's pick! Haha.

Out of the three though, Ashthon Jones is really in trouble. I don't think she has a large fan base to carry her far in the competition - she didn't even make the Top 10 - and her performance was beyond forgettable, almost non-existent. Sadly, at this stage of the competition, it's better to be BAD than FORGETTABLE.

As for the other two spots, I'm thinking it's between Karen Rodriguez, Haley Reinhart, Thia Megia and maybe Naima Adedapo - just because she has a different number (36), but I'm hoping it doesn't screw her over. I have a strange feeling though that there's going to be someone in the Bottom 3 who doesn't belong there.

Anyway, I'll take a limb on this and say that Ashthon Jones is my best bet to leave this week. I guess we’ll find out tonight.


Top 13 Performances Review, HERE.
Top 13 Studio Versions, HERE.

American Idol 9: Top 4 - Who's Going Home?

This week's exit will be determined by the strength of each contestant’s fan base and nothing else. Seriously.

Now, I think that anybody could go except for Crystal Bowersox. Lee Dewyze is a possibility after his underwhelming solo performance last night although with momentum on his side, there is an outside chance that he will make an appearance in the Bottom 2. More likely, it will be Mike and Casey as this week's Bottom pair.

Casey James sang really well last night - both solo and duet - but I’m still not totally convinced that he's safe for tonight's elimination. I think that as good as Casey was this week, it’s the week after a poor performance that often leads to elimination and it would not be a surprise. I don't know. Frankly, I will be pleasantly surprised if Casey pulls out one more week but if he doesn’t, at least he will go out on a high note and won’t be blamed for some other worthy contestant getting booted too early.

As for Michael Lynche, his performance this week was safe and - to some extent - bland. He performed second, which is the death spot on a Final 4 night and he’s been in the Bottom group a number of times. I don’t think his performance would have made casual viewers rush to the phone out of love or pity, so should be a little worried if I'm Big Mike.

That being said, I’m not going to rule out a possible shock boot either. I think it could be Lee, if that’s the case, but of course any of them are up for grabs as far as that goes. But if I'll base it on my American Idol History Fun Facts, history suggests that except for Season 7, most of the biggest shock eliminations on Idol history have occurred during the Top 4 Results night on an odd-numbered Idol season: Tamyra Gray (Season 1), LaToya London (Season 3), and Chris Daughtry (Season 5). So, will the Top 4 curse strike again? Maybe.

Oh well. I'll take a limb on this AGAIN and say that Michael Lynche is, AGAIN, my best bet to leave this week. I guess we’ll find out tonight.

American Idol 9: Top 5 - Who's Going Home?

Ok. So, the idea is obviously simple: the less finalists we have, the harder and crazier it gets to predict who'll be going home on the show. That was what happened last week, when I was almost pretty sure that it was Michael Lynche's time to go, only to see Siobhan Magnus get eliminated. This week? It might be a bit easier.

Or maybe not. I mean, the judges may have been too harsh on certain contestants - Casey James, in particular - and the fans might have risen up and started a revolution on the phone lines. I'm not sure if it will prevent the contestant - yes, I'm looking at you again, Casey James - from being eliminated but the possibility is there.

This I am certain though, Lee Dewyze is safe! Haha. Crystal Bowersox could skip the bottom three like she always has, which makes my Bottom 3 be Michael Lynche, Aaron Kelly and Casey James.

If I'll base it on my American Idol History Fun Facts, I'd say Casey James is going home this week. History suggests that whoever performed SECOND during the Top 5 show has typically been eliminated that same week: R.J. Helton (Season 1), Trenyce (Season 2), George Huff (Season 3), Scott Savol (Season 4), and Paris Bennett (Season 5). In Season 6, there was no Top 5 show because they had a double elimination on its Top 6 week (Chris Richardson and Phil Stacey). Only David Cook (Season 7) and Allison Iraheta (Season 8) survived this position during their respective seasons.

Of course, it didn't help that Casey James was also criticized by the judges for his underwhelming performance last night. So, the odds of him getting eliminated is pretty high.

That said, I won't be surprised if either Aaron or Big Mike does get eliminated, though. In fact, I'll be more than happy to see Michael Lynche go home! Haha.

But I'll take a limb on this and say that Michael Lynche is, AGAIN, my best bet to leave this week. Sure, it seems like a bit of a stretch but so was Siobhan Magnus' exit last week. Thank you very much. Haha.

American Idol 9: Top 6 - Who's Going Home?

Last night the the Top 6 performed Shania Twain's catalogue and turned in strong performances. Yes, all of them. Well, the word strong can take on many meanings here, but you know what I mean.

In theory, having a tight six-way contest should make it harder to predict who's going home - and we all know anything can happen on Idol - but in this case, I'm now leaning towards saying that Michael Lynche will most likely go home tonight.

Big Mike is just dead to me. I think his presence is already starting to offend and I don't even think he has that big of a fanbase to buy him another week. Heck, he should've been eliminated three weeks ago. His time has run out and we NEED to send him packing.

However, history suggests that it's Aaron Kelly's time to go. I mean, the fifth person to perform during Top 6 week typically ends up in the bottom three for six out of eight seasons. In four of those seasons, the fifth performer went home, including Carly Smithson and Constantine Maroulis. See, Carly Smithson had a good performance (Jesus Christ Superstar) and still went home that week.  So, will Aaron fall prey to that trend? I'm not so sure but a Bottom 3 appearance this week is more than likely.

Now, I think that there is no clear cut Bottom 3 this week although Michael Lynche and Aaron Kelly are almost a no-brainer. Casey James and Siobhan Magnus should be the other member of that group. I don't know. Gut-feel, I guess.

As for Lee Dewyze and Crystal Bowersox, I think both of them are safe. Sure, they both had underwhelming  and low-key performances last night and a trip to that Bottom group is possible - at least for Lee - but I do feel that their fanbase are big enough to carry them through to the next round. Enough said.

A few hours back, I honestly had no clue who is going home as voters have been out of wack and more than half of the Top 6, arguably, should not be there and better people went out before them. But now, I'll go on a limb and predict that Michael Lynche will be eliminated tonight.

I think there's a 20% chance of a surprise elimination though. Besides, this is American Idol and we may all agree that it has done surprises before.

American Idol: Top 7 - Who's Going Home?

For a week that's supposed to be inspiring, the remaining Idol hopefuls instead left me confused and bored. Seriously. Inspirational night? Not so much.

To be honest, it's going to be a tough week. Sure, a couple of people deserve the boot, but I'm not so sure which one will it be.

I mean, isn’t it a tradition that whoever is the first member of the Top 12’s Bottom 3 to be sent back to safety has typically been eliminated on Top 10 night but if they survived that elimination will then get the boot on the Top 7 night? Julia DeMato (Season 2), Amy Adams (Season 3), Jessica Sierra (Season 4), and Lisa Tucker (Season 5) were all eliminated on Top 10 week after they were sent first to safety during the Top 12 night. Sanjaya Malakar (Season 6) and Kristy Lee Cook (Season 7) survived Top 10 week but were both eliminated on Top 7 week of their respective seasons.

So, will Tim Urban - the first one to be sent back to safety during the Top 12 results night this season - have the same fate as Sanjaya and Kristy Lee or will he survive another week? Personally, I don't think Tim will go. He's like that weird relative that comes for a weekend and never leaves. Sure, he took a step backward this week, but I somehow liked his song choice.

Aaron Kelly was clearly out of his depth for most of his performances since the Finals. That said, I think he still has the tween vote along with Tim Urban so it can buy him another more week, which makes Casey James and even Michael Lynche very vulnerable for the boot.

Casey, I think, picked a boring overdone song and didn't even try. Say what you want about Lee, Siobhan or even Tim's singing, at least, they went for it. This guy, however, has been cruising on bar band performances for far too long. Heck, I don't even see him getting better.

As for Michael Lynche, I don't really like him. So whatever.

I wouldn't be surprised though if Siobhan ends up in the Bottom 3 after a not-so-good reviews from the judges. That said, I really don't see her getting eliminated this week.

Ultimately, I'm pretty sure a guy will leave this week just because of split voting among too many of them. Tim, Aaron and Casey will complete the Bottom 3 with Casey getting the boot.

American Idol 9: Top 9 Redux - Who's Going Home?

Ok. Since the judges used their one time veto power to save Michael Lynche last week, TWO contestants must go home this week.

Barring another surprise like last week’s "unexpected" elimination of Big Mike, I think it’s safe to predict at least one of tonight’s eliminated Idols. 

Andrew Garcia, to me, is almost a sure bet to leave this week. I mean, it’s definitely been his turn to go for a while now. His lazy-stupid performance skills, are really overshadowing some awesome Maroon 5-like vocals. I agree with Ellen that Andrew had great vocals on his Elvis song, but no one noticed because he just under performs on stage.

If Andrew doesn’t go home, I’ll be very very confused. Haha.

The second pick, on the other hand, is a little trickier.  Based on last night’s performances, it should be Aaron Kelly. He got slammed by Simon and performed early in the line up. But the negative feedback he got from judges may actually save him tonight - his fans may go into overdrive voting for him.

Now, if this year’s pattern follows last year’s week after the save, Big Mike could get by at least one more week and that could open the door for Katie Stevens being a possibility. And while she performed really well last night, she wasn’t as good as the week before. Plus, Simon somehow didn’t like it. So she may have lost the casual vote. I also don't think that she has a really deep fan base at this point.

But for some weird reason, I have this funny feeling that Casey James will end up at the Bottom 3. Yes. He got the pimp spot last night but that didn't prevent Anoop Desai for being eliminated last year after Matt Giraud got the judge's save.

Frankly, almost anyone else could go and I would not be shocked. Heck, even Siobhan is a possibility. But we'll see.

I’ll go out on a limb and say that it will be Andrew, Aaron and Katie/Casey in the Bottom 3.