American Idol 9: Top 5 - Who's Going Home?

Ok. So, the idea is obviously simple: the less finalists we have, the harder and crazier it gets to predict who'll be going home on the show. That was what happened last week, when I was almost pretty sure that it was Michael Lynche's time to go, only to see Siobhan Magnus get eliminated. This week? It might be a bit easier.

Or maybe not. I mean, the judges may have been too harsh on certain contestants - Casey James, in particular - and the fans might have risen up and started a revolution on the phone lines. I'm not sure if it will prevent the contestant - yes, I'm looking at you again, Casey James - from being eliminated but the possibility is there.

This I am certain though, Lee Dewyze is safe! Haha. Crystal Bowersox could skip the bottom three like she always has, which makes my Bottom 3 be Michael Lynche, Aaron Kelly and Casey James.

If I'll base it on my American Idol History Fun Facts, I'd say Casey James is going home this week. History suggests that whoever performed SECOND during the Top 5 show has typically been eliminated that same week: R.J. Helton (Season 1), Trenyce (Season 2), George Huff (Season 3), Scott Savol (Season 4), and Paris Bennett (Season 5). In Season 6, there was no Top 5 show because they had a double elimination on its Top 6 week (Chris Richardson and Phil Stacey). Only David Cook (Season 7) and Allison Iraheta (Season 8) survived this position during their respective seasons.

Of course, it didn't help that Casey James was also criticized by the judges for his underwhelming performance last night. So, the odds of him getting eliminated is pretty high.

That said, I won't be surprised if either Aaron or Big Mike does get eliminated, though. In fact, I'll be more than happy to see Michael Lynche go home! Haha.

But I'll take a limb on this and say that Michael Lynche is, AGAIN, my best bet to leave this week. Sure, it seems like a bit of a stretch but so was Siobhan Magnus' exit last week. Thank you very much. Haha.