Thursday, April 29, 2010

American Idol 9: Top 6 - Who's Going Home?

Last night the the Top 6 performed Shania Twain's catalogue and turned in strong performances. Yes, all of them. Well, the word strong can take on many meanings here, but you know what I mean.

In theory, having a tight six-way contest should make it harder to predict who's going home - and we all know anything can happen on Idol - but in this case, I'm now leaning towards saying that Michael Lynche will most likely go home tonight.

Big Mike is just dead to me. I think his presence is already starting to offend and I don't even think he has that big of a fanbase to buy him another week. Heck, he should've been eliminated three weeks ago. His time has run out and we NEED to send him packing.

However, history suggests that it's Aaron Kelly's time to go. I mean, the fifth person to perform during Top 6 week typically ends up in the bottom three for six out of eight seasons. In four of those seasons, the fifth performer went home, including Carly Smithson and Constantine Maroulis. See, Carly Smithson had a good performance (Jesus Christ Superstar) and still went home that week.  So, will Aaron fall prey to that trend? I'm not so sure but a Bottom 3 appearance this week is more than likely.

Now, I think that there is no clear cut Bottom 3 this week although Michael Lynche and Aaron Kelly are almost a no-brainer. Casey James and Siobhan Magnus should be the other member of that group. I don't know. Gut-feel, I guess.

As for Lee Dewyze and Crystal Bowersox, I think both of them are safe. Sure, they both had underwhelming  and low-key performances last night and a trip to that Bottom group is possible - at least for Lee - but I do feel that their fanbase are big enough to carry them through to the next round. Enough said.

A few hours back, I honestly had no clue who is going home as voters have been out of wack and more than half of the Top 6, arguably, should not be there and better people went out before them. But now, I'll go on a limb and predict that Michael Lynche will be eliminated tonight.

I think there's a 20% chance of a surprise elimination though. Besides, this is American Idol and we may all agree that it has done surprises before.


Jon said...

dapat lang!!!

damthenation said...

Haha. Word!

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